The notion of overfitting is presented in terms of asking too much from the available data. The present article is a nontechnical discussion of the concept of overfitting and is intended to be accessible to readers with varying levels of statistical expertise. Overfitted models will fail to replicate in future samples, thus creating considerable uncertainty about the scientific merit of the finding. Many who use these techniques, however, apparently fail to appreciate fully the problem of overfitting, ie, capitalizing on the idiosyncrasies of the sample at hand. Statistical models, such as linear or logistic regression or survival analysis, are frequently used as a means to answer scientific questions in psychosomatic research.
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